Publications
Working papers, policy briefs, and research reports from EGTF researchers.
Governance Gaps in Dual-Use AI Systems: Toward an International Framework
As frontier AI systems approach capabilities once considered theoretical, existing international governance frameworks remain wholly inadequate. This paper maps the principal gaps and proposes a preliminary architecture for multilateral oversight, drawing on arms control precedents and emerging technology governance literature.
Pandemic Preparedness After COVID-19: Closing the Institutional Deficit
Despite unprecedented global experience with a major pandemic, key preparedness institutions remain underfunded and structurally fragile. This brief identifies five critical reforms for the post-COVID preparedness architecture, with particular focus on the WHO's financing and authority gaps.
Global Pandemic Preparedness Index 2024: Preliminary Findings
Preliminary findings from the biennial GPPI assessment covering 82 countries. Key findings: preparedness has improved in high-income countries since 2021 but deteriorated in a significant share of low-income countries, creating a widening preparedness gap with serious global implications.
Cascade Risk: How Climate Disruption Amplifies Nuclear and Pandemic Threats
Global catastrophic risks do not operate in isolation. This report examines compounding risk scenarios in which climate disruption degrades institutional capacity, increasing the probability of nuclear accidents and pandemic emergence. Introduces the EGTF Cascade Risk Assessment methodology.
Autonomous Weapons and the Erosion of Meaningful Human Control
The accelerating development and deployment of autonomous weapons systems is creating conditions in which meaningful human oversight of lethal decisions cannot be maintained. This brief assesses the current state of international law and proposes minimum standards for human control.
State Fragility Under Climate Stress: A Catastrophic Risk Multiplier
Climate disruption does not generate catastrophic risk directly through temperature increase alone. This paper models the pathways through which climate stress erodes state capacity, generates conflict, and reduces the institutional bandwidth available for managing other catastrophic threats.
Synthetic Biology and the Biosecurity Frontier
Advances in synthetic biology have dramatically reduced the technical barriers to creating dangerous biological agents. This report assesses the current threat landscape, reviews the adequacy of existing governance frameworks, and identifies priority areas for international regulatory action.
Nuclear Risk in a Multipolar World: Beyond Cold War Deterrence Models
Cold War deterrence theory was developed for a bipolar world with two primary nuclear actors. This brief examines why existing models fail to adequately account for multipolar nuclear dynamics and the heightened risk of miscalculation in a world with multiple nuclear-armed states.
AI Safety Research Agenda for Governance Practitioners
Technical AI safety research has advanced significantly, but much of it remains inaccessible to the governance practitioners most responsible for regulating AI development. This paper provides a governance-oriented synthesis of the key findings and open questions in AI safety research.
Pandemic Risk and the International Health Regulations: An Assessment at 15 Years
Fifteen years after the revised International Health Regulations entered into force, this report assesses their effectiveness, identifies the structural weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and proposes a reform agenda for the next IHR revision cycle.
Open Access Policy
All EGTF publications are freely available for non-commercial use with attribution. Reproduction in whole or in part for commercial purposes requires written permission. Contact [email protected] for licensing enquiries.