Threat Areas
Six domains of catastrophic and existential risk under active EGTF research and monitoring.
— Pandemic & Biological Risk
Pandemic & Biological Risk
Of all the threats EGTF tracks, pandemic and biological risks present the most immediate convergence of natural hazard and human-amplified danger. Emerging infectious diseases have repeatedly demonstrated the capacity to spread globally before containment is possible. Advances in synthetic biology now mean that engineered pathogens — once the exclusive domain of state-level weapons programs — are increasingly within reach of smaller actors.
EGTF research in this domain covers: surveillance and early-warning system gaps; the governance architecture of the International Health Regulations; biosafety failures at high-containment research facilities; the dual-use risks of gain-of-function research; and the political economy of pandemic preparedness investment.
Key Concerns
- Underinvestment in global health security infrastructure
- Surveillance blind spots in low-income countries
- Fragmented international response mechanisms
- Growing accessibility of synthetic biology tools
- Erosion of biosafety norms in research contexts
— Nuclear & Radiological
Nuclear & Radiological Threats
The nuclear threat has not receded since the Cold War — in many respects, it has grown more complex. The number of nuclear-armed states has increased. Arms control treaties that provided structural stability for decades have eroded or collapsed. New delivery systems and doctrines lower the threshold for first use. And the risk of accidental or inadvertent nuclear exchange has increased alongside the pace of technological change.
EGTF's nuclear risk program examines proliferation dynamics, accident risk factors, the stability of deterrence doctrine under new technological conditions, and the state of international arms control architecture. We pay particular attention to scenarios involving multiple nuclear-armed actors and to the interaction between nuclear risk and other catastrophic threat domains.
Key Concerns
- Collapse of bilateral and multilateral arms control frameworks
- Proliferation to additional state actors
- Command-and-control vulnerabilities, especially in crisis
- Risk of miscalculation in multi-polar nuclear environments
- Radiological terrorism scenarios
— Climate & Environment
Climate & Environmental Collapse
EGTF approaches climate change not as an environmental policy issue but as a catastrophic risk amplifier. Our research focuses particularly on extreme tail scenarios — temperature increases of 3°C or more, multiple simultaneous tipping point crossings, and cascading ecosystem collapse — and on the ways climate disruption degrades the institutional capacity needed to manage other catastrophic risks.
We examine climate risk through the lens of civilizational stability: the relationship between climate stress and state fragility, resource conflict, mass displacement, and the institutional erosion that can make all other catastrophic risks harder to manage. Our cascade risk framework, developed in 2016, remains a reference model for integrated risk analysis.
Key Concerns
- Tipping points triggering at lower thresholds than modeled
- Agricultural system disruption and food security crises
- Climate-driven state fragility and conflict
- Compounding effects on pandemic and nuclear risk management
- Limits of current adaptation capacity
— Advanced AI
Advanced AI & Emerging Technology
EGTF established its AI Risk Research Program in 2013, making it one of the earliest institutional research programs focused on existential and catastrophic risks from advanced artificial intelligence. The program focuses on risks from misaligned AI systems, the development of autonomous weapons, and the systemic risks created by rapid, ungoverned technological acceleration across multiple domains simultaneously.
Our most recent research centers on the governance vacuum surrounding frontier AI systems — the absence of binding international standards, the inadequacy of voluntary industry commitments, and the structural challenges of coordinating governance across competing geopolitical blocs.
Key Concerns
- Misaligned advanced AI systems with access to critical infrastructure
- Autonomous weapons systems and AI-enabled warfare
- Erosion of meaningful human oversight of high-stakes decisions
- Concentration of advanced AI capability in a small number of actors
- Absence of binding international AI governance frameworks
— Biosecurity
Biosecurity & Dual-Use Research
While our pandemic program focuses on naturally occurring biological threats, the Biosecurity program addresses the deliberate dimension: the risks posed by engineered pathogens, biological weapons programs, and the dual-use potential of advancing biotechnology. The rapid democratization of synthetic biology tools has transformed this landscape, creating pathways for harm that did not exist a decade ago.
We examine the Biological Weapons Convention and its enforcement gaps; the biosafety and biosecurity norms governing high-risk research; the governance of dual-use research of concern; and the expanding attack surface created by the combination of accessible biotech tools, open scientific publishing, and AI-assisted biological design.
Key Concerns
- Weaknesses in the Biological Weapons Convention regime
- AI-assisted design of novel biological agents
- Insufficient oversight of dual-use research
- Democratization of advanced biotech tools
- Non-state actor access to dangerous biological materials
— Governance Failure
Global Governance Failure
Global governance failure is both a catastrophic risk in its own right and a force multiplier for every other threat on this list. The multilateral institutions built after World War II — designed to prevent conflict, coordinate on shared challenges, and enforce international norms — face mounting structural stresses from geopolitical competition, populist nationalism, and institutional fatigue.
Our Governance Failure program, established in 2023, examines the conditions under which international cooperation collapses; the systemic effects of norm erosion across arms control, humanitarian law, and trade regimes; and the implications of a fractured international order for humanity's capacity to manage existential risks that require coordinated global response.
Key Concerns
- Fragmentation of multilateral institutions and treaty regimes
- Geopolitical competition impeding global risk coordination
- Erosion of international legal norms
- Declining capacity for collective action on shared threats
- Institutional capture and information environment degradation